Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia:

"Extreme interannual variability of precipitation within Ethiopia is not uncommon, inducing droughts or floods and often creating serious repercussions on agricultural and non-agricultural commodities. An agro-economic model, including mean climate variables, was developed to assess irrigation and road construction investment strategies in comparison to a baseline scenario over a 12-year time horizon. The motivation for this work is to evaluate whether the inclusion of climate variability in the model has a significant effect on prospective investment strategies and the resulting country-wide economy. The mean climate model is transformed into a variable climate model by dynamically adding yearly climate-yield factors, which influence agricultural production levels and linkages to non-agricultural goods. Nine sets of variable climate data are processed by the new model to produce an ensemble of potential economic prediction indicators. Analysis of gross domestic product and poverty rate reveal a significant overestimation of the country's future welfare by the mean climate model method, in comparison to probability density functions created from the variable climate ensemble. The ensemble is further utilized to demonstrate risk assessment capabilities. The addition of climate variability to the agro-economic model provides a framework, including realistic ranges of economic values, from which Ethiopian planners may make strategic decisions." Authors' abstractClimate variability, Water, Droughts, Flooding, Irrigation Economic aspects, Road construction Economic aspects, Investments, Economic situation, Agro-economic model,

Composite likelihood for multiple multistate processes

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Biostatistics following peer review. The version of record Biostat (2014) 15 (4): 690-705 first published online April 9, 2014 doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxu011 is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxu011A copula-based model is described which enables joint analysis of multiple progressive multistate processes. Unlike intensity-based or frailty-based approaches to joint modeling, the copula formulation proposed herein ensures that a wide range of marginal multistate processes can be specified and the joint model will retain these marginal features. The copula formulation also facilitates a variety of approaches to estimation and inference including composite likelihood and two-stage estimation procedures. We consider processes with Markov margins in detail, which are often suitable when chronic diseases are progressive in nature. We give special attention to the setting in which individuals are examined intermittently and transition times are consequently interval-censored. Simulation studies give empirical insight into the different methods of analysis and an application involving progression in joint damage in psoriatic arthritis provides further illustration.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council || RGPIN/155849 Canadian Institutes for Health Research (FRN 13887

Macro-micro feedback links of water management in South Africa : CGE analyses of selected policy regimes

The pressure on an already stressed water situation in South Africa is predicted to increase significantly under climate change, plans for large industrial expansion, observed rapid urbanization, and government programs to provide access to water to millions of previously excluded people. The present study employed a general equilibrium approach to examine the economy-wide impacts of selected macro and water related policy reforms on water use and allocation, rural livelihoods, and the economy at large. The analyses reveal that implicit crop-level water quotas reduce the amount of irrigated land allocated to higher-value horticultural crops and create higher shadow rents for production of lower-value, water-intensive field crops, such as sugarcane and fodder. Accordingly, liberalizing local water allocation in irrigation agriculture is found to work in favor of higher-value crops, and expand agricultural production and exports and farm employment. Allowing for water trade between irrigation and non-agricultural uses fueled by higher competition for water from industrial expansion and urbanization leads to greater water shadow prices for irrigation water with reduced income and employment benefits to rural households and higher gains for non-agricultural households. The analyses show difficult tradeoffs between general economic gains and higher water prices, making irrigation subsidies difficult to justify.Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Water Supply and Systems,Water and Industry,Water Conservation

Forces behind China's Surging Trade: Competitiveness or Policy Driven?

This paper delves into China's differential growths in trade flows with high income countries by focusing on bilateral content of trade data over the time period 1962-2005. Unlike other studies, we account for end use of traded goods ranging from primary, intermediate, and finished goods because China's policies impact all segments China's trade flows. China's trade growth patterns with major high income countries clearly indicate that the adjacency-neighborhood partners alone is unlikely to explain its unprecedented growth in exports and imports. China's outstanding performance in trade growth can be traced back to the 1970s with changes in its policies and increased involvement in the international segmentation of production processes and preferential tariff treatment to assembling and processing activities.China, international trade, growth, policies, International Relations/Trade,

Developing Country Trade: Implications of China’s Changing Trade and Competitiveness in Intensive and Extensive Margin Goods

This paper delves into China’s differential growths in trade flows with high income and developing countries by focusing on bilateral content of trade data over the time period 1978-2005. Unlike other studies, we account for end use of traded goods ranging from primary, intermediate, and finished goods because China’s policies impact all segments China’s trade flows. In the last 28 years, China has specialized in deficits in the upstream production segments (parts and components) and rapid diversification in consumption goods (extensive margin). While in the late 1970s China’s export and import growth on all goods with major high income countries is outstanding in the most recent years China’s trade growth with developing countries has taken the lead while China is gaining in extensive margins goods trade. This general pattern evolving is in agreement with some of the new trade theory that gives a dominant role to an expansion of the number of export varieties (the extensive margin), which provides an additional channel for welfare gains from trade.China, international trade, growth, intensive, extensive margins, developing countries, International Relations/Trade,

Thermo-mechanical sensitivity calibration of nanotorsional magnetometers

We report on the fabrication of sensitive nanotorsional resonators, which can be utilized as magnetometers for investigating the magnetization dynamics in small magnetic elements. The thermo-mechanical noise is calibrated with the resonator displacement in order to determine the ultimate mechanical torque sensitivity of the magnetometer.Comment: 56th Annual Conference on Magnetism and Magnetic Material

Stick index of knots and links in the cubic lattice

The cubic lattice stick index of a knot type is the least number of sticks necessary to construct the knot type in the 3-dimensional cubic lattice. We present the cubic lattice stick index of various knots and links, including all (p,p+1)-torus knots, and show how composing and taking satellites can be used to obtain the cubic lattice stick index for a relatively large infinite class of knots. Additionally, we present several bounds relating cubic lattice stick index to other known invariants.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figure

Exactness of the Original Grover Search Algorithm

It is well-known that when searching one out of four, the original Grover's search algorithm is exact; that is, it succeeds with certainty. It is natural to ask the inverse question: If we are not searching one out of four, is Grover's algorithm definitely not exact? In this article we give a complete answer to this question through some rationality results of trigonometric functions.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figure